Asos Hardi, the executive editor of the Awene newspaper in Sulaymaniyah, evaluated Kurdish politics in light of the Iraqi parliamentary elections. Hardi said that the Kurds, who were badly affected by the last parliamentary elections, lost some advantages in Baghdad compared to the previous elections, but that they would keep their importance despite everything. Hardi remarked that it needs more than arithmetics about parliamentary seats to solve the problems like Kirkuk.
What do you think are the most important results of Iraqi parliamentary elections?
There was election fraud all around Iraq. In the Kurdish regions, too. Still, we can say that the fraud was relatively fair in Kurdistan region. There are three important results of the general elections. First, the Kurds lost seats in the Iraqi Parliament. As you know, our number of seat in parliament increased by fifty in the last elections. But this increase was not reflected in the Kurds’ situation. In this respect, we can describe this as a great loss for the Kurds. And we can say that Kurds’ rights were not defended enough. Second, the Shiites are divided into two factions. Third, the Sunnis are rising in parliament. The Shiite and Kurd coalition controlled the parliament in the last term. Now, the situation is more difficult. Shiites have problems with each other. It is clear that Iraqiyya won the most votes. Allawi has the right to set up a government. However, an alliance between Maliki and other Shiite groups was sealed after the elections. The constitutional court’s explanation formed a basis for this new alliance to take the charge of setting up the government. Consequently, the situation has become incredibly complicated.
How will the recent elections’ results affect the Kurds’ situation in Baghdad?
No groups will be excluded from the government. It is no longer possible for the Kurds and Shiites to exclude Sunnis, as they did in 2005. The Kurds lost seats, but they didn’t lose everything. Moreover, the Arab lists’ problems give opportunities to the Kurds. The Kurds will have an important role in spite of everything.
What effects will the election results have from the point of view of Kurdish internal politics?
The KDP came in first place, if we look at the number of votes. But it won less than the total votes of the PUK and Goran. However, the election system doesn’t fairly translate the number of votes to the number of MPs. When we look at the number of MPs, the KDP has more deputies than both of these parties. The KDP was the only party that thoroughly understood the election system and applied appropriate strategies. In my opinion, the PUK was hurt by its the alliance with the KDP. Still, I think the KDP-PUK alliance won’t break down because there are valid reasons that keep it alive. As far as Goran goes, this group made no headway.
What do you think are the causes of Goran’s setback?
They didn’t pay attention to Goran at all in Kurdistan Regional Parliament elections in 2009. The KDP and the PUK thought that Goran would take only 4 or 5 seats. The result wasn’t like that. They were surprised. But the KDP and the PUK worked hard to prevent Goran from having the same success again. They focused on Goran. On the other hand, Goran was too sure of itself. In the end, Goran lost its preeminence in many regions to the PUK.
As some said, was it ineffective for Goran to use nationalist themes?
I think this was effective only in the disputed regions, not in Kurdistan. Kurds who live in disputed regions feel threatened. So, nationalist discourse may have been effective in the disputed regions.
Is it possible that the Kurds’ significance in Baghdad will be affected negatively by the election results?
The results will affect Kurds’ position in entire Iraq negatively. Of course, that doesn’t mean that we lost everything. Even if Kurds had succeeded in the election, some problems’ solution would have been difficult. The big problems like Kirkuk are not solvable problems with seat number in the parliament. On the other hand, Kurds will never accept less than federalism. Anyway, it is necessary to change the constitution and it is not possible as long as Kurds’ veto. That is; there is a constitutional assurance about federalism.
How will the Sunnis’ relationship with the Kurds turn out?
The problem is the Sunni Arabs’ nationalist discourse. Sunni Arabs don’t accept Kurdish rights. What they want is to go back to the Saddam era. They aren’t ready to accept us Kurds. If they accept Kurds’ rights, they may be together in the same government. There examples in the history. But this is not possible until Sunnis understand Kurds’ situation better.
Do the Kurds’ problems in Baghdad bring them closer to neighboring countries, especially Turkey?
In fact, the Kurds don’t want to look towards neighboring countries because the Kurds’ rights are not recognized there, especially in Syria and Iran. The closest candidate may be Turkey. The initiatives concerning the Kurds in Turkey over the last 3-4 years make this possible. But there is still a a lot of resistance to openness with the Kurds in Turkey. The Kurds’ biggest problem is their neighbors who don’t recognize them.
What do you think are the causes of Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds’ convergence?
PM Erdoğan has made many positive steps regarding the Kurds’ problems, breaking big taboos. This is a good step for relations. Relations may be better in the future.
And how might the Kurdish authorities respond to the steps Turkey has made?
They might improve economic relations, border security, stability in the region and contribute to the resolution of the Kurds’ problems in Turkey. It is in our interest to see Turkey in the EU. This will positively affect Kurdish rights in Turkey as long as Turkey abides by democratic principles. And we will be neighbors of the EU since we share a border with Turkey. This will provide both economic and political advantages.
How will the KDP’s success affect its position in Kurdish politics?
From now on, the KDP will demand more from other Kurdish parties. If Talabani becomes the president, then the KDP will ask for more in Baghdad. The KDP won’t be able to be speak for Kurdish people on its own. Decisions must be made together in a Kurdish coalition created for the parliament in Baghdad. Kurdish parties will work together in the Kurds’ general interest.
What kind of process does wait PUK? There are some evaluations related with post-Talabani term. What are your opinions?
The power in PUK totally belongs to Talabani. The congress planned to be made in the end of this year will be an indication of this. The biggest difficulty for PUK is the post-Talabani term. PUK keeps its unity thanks to Talabani’s charisma. There is no figure in place of him. But I think PUK won’t disperse after Talabani but it will be third party. In other words, it will change the place with Goran.
Thanks for your evaluations.
*This interview was conducted by ORSAM Middle East specialist, Oytun Orhan, and ORSAM’s chief editor, Ogün Duru, in Sulaymaniyah on May 14, 2010.