Basil El Gureyri, the vice president of the Center for Iraq Strategic Studies delivered a speech on “The Future of Turkey and Iraq Relations: Friendship and Cooperation” at an international symposium called “The History of Turkey and Iraq Relations and Openings for the Future,” held with the cooperation of the Atatürk Research Center, the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies and the Iraq Culture Embassy, and spoke about Iraq’s March 2010 parliamentary elections and Turkey’s relations with Iraq with a Middle East specialist from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies, Bilgay Duman, in an interview held on June 10, 2010.
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: The Center for Iraq Strategic Studies was established in 2006. It does strategic studies of Iraq. We have held lots of symposiums. Most of them are broadcast to Arab countries and the world via satellite channels. It was broadcast by Arabic channels such as Al Jazeera, Al Arabia, nearly all of the Iraqi channels and international channels such as Reuters, France Presse, CNN. We are working only on Iraq. For instance, we’ve held lots of symposiums and meetings. We have done lots of research on Kirkuk.  We did extensive research for the “The History of Turkey and Iraq Relations and Openings for the Future,” symposium. Our guests are generally academics and MPs. We are objective, and we are independent. We are trying to be a center for dialog between Iraqi groups who cannot get on well. We try to unite and try to keep our ideas on people’s minds. We also promote our academic role. We have a quarterly journal: The Situation of Iraq. We also have a weekly publication. We commission studies of technical research and politics. We have questionnaire results about the elections. In the recent elections we were really appreciated, and did a really good job. Al Jazeera, in particular, praised us. They interviewed me on this subject, and Arabs saw us as very successful. All our predictions came true. For example, our predictions about how much the Kurds would win, or Al Iraqiyya would win, and election turnout were all very successful. 
 

The Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies: So how do you evaluate the election results? 
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: Actually, it is hard to evaluate it because the parliament is now very complicated, just like the English parliament. It is so complicated because no one was able to win a majority. Thus there will be a coalition government. Today, the interpretation of Article 67 seems like an obstacle to forming a government. Whether the winners are those who won the most votes or those who can set up a majority coalition government is a matter of curiosity. According to the comments of the National Iraq alliance and the Rule of Law alliance, they can win power if the two sides unite and become the majority. Al Iraqiyya says, “We won the most votes, so it is our right to set up a government.’  Only the Kurdish side is taking advantage of the situation, since the Kurds are in the middle of the balance. They feel that they are the ones who can balance the sides. Thus they are try to profit as much as they can from the situation.  We are afraid that the coalitions will make concessions about Kirkuk to Kurdish. You know that Kurds are trying to profit as much as possible so that, when the time comes, they will be able to establish a Kurdish state. However, they say that they don’t want to do such a thing, and that in the future they won’t do it. Iraqis, thank God, say that Turkey is our neighbor. If it wasn’t for Turkey, a Kurdish state would already have been established. Thus Turkey, intentionally or unintentionally, saves the unity and the solidarity of Iraq. At least the protection of the solidarity is one of the main reasons. On this subject we say that Turkey’s relations with Iraq are developing and thriving. We all know very well that the Israelis are in Northern Iraq. From a speech by the Israeli Ministry of Security, we know that they support a Kurdish state at Iraq. Here we have common interests. We advocate a centralized structure for Iraq, and Turkey wants to maintain this structure. We have one common idea. The main problem in Iraq is that no coalition is forthcoming. The central government tries eliminate the PKK, but the decision is beyond their power. It is the Kurds who have the decision making power. Thus they say, “We will do this or that,” but they have done nothing. It is actually a comic situation.  Everyone interferes in Iraq. Since 2003 everyone has interfered in Iraq’s domestic affairs, so we interfered with Turkey’s domestic affairs by embracing the PKK. This is very interesting indeed. 
 

The Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies: For you, what are Iraq’s fundamental problems? 
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: The first one is that there is no compromise. There is mistrust between the politicians. Iraq’s Constitution is definitely not suitable for a modern state. There are lots of problems with the Constitution. For example, federal regions have more authority than the center. For instance, Article 121 says that if the federal region’s laws and central state’s laws are incompatible with each other, the laws of the federal region are valid. This is not federalism. It is a confederate structure. The second important issue is that we actually have two governments. One in the north, and one central government. The northern government has exceeded its borders by more than 300 km since 2003. They try to get hold of the plains, demanding Mosul, Kirkuk, Diyarbakir, Amara and Meysan. After winning the plains they are planning to establish their own state.  There is an understanding among all Iraqi people that the Kurds always work for themselves, not for Iraq. Thus our future is not very bright. Our government cannot depends on its citizens. It is a state established on ethnic and sectarian identities. This is totally against the idea of a modern state. 
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: Since 2003 Turkey’s Iraqi policy has gone through two phases. Turkey has tried to get used to a bad situation.  Until 2007 Turkey tried to get rid of the Iraq problem. Turkey wanted to protect the unity of Iraq and didn’t want contact with the regional administration in the north. It gave importance to regional policies, but didn’t want to interfere with the domestic affairs. Since 2007, especially after Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmet Davutoglu, came into office, Turkey has wanted to achieve zero problems with its neighbors, as Davutoglu said in his book Strategic Depth, two problems arose in the context of Turkey’s Iraq policy. First, what will happen at Iraq after the American withdrawal from Iraq and how this will effect Turkey? What will Turkey’s policy be? The second problem is interference in the domestic affairs of Iraq by its other neighbors. Why would Turkey would just stand by and watch while other countries interfere with Iraq’s domestic affairs? I have been thinking for two years that Turkey now affects the balances of power in Iraq.  This situation has been accepted both in Iraq and the Arab world. Turkey’s role in Iraq at the very least doesn’t bother the majority since we think that Turkey, always supporting the unity of Iraq and the establishment of a centralized government with a policy on having good relations with all Iraq, will play a big role than other nations in Iraq’s reconstruction and public welfare.
 

The Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies:  You have said that you have worked extensively on Kirkuk. What is your solution for Kirkuk? How can Kirkuk and more generally, Iraq, achieve stability?  
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: Kirkuk is a problem that may explode Iraq’s future. As you’ve said, it is one of the main issues for Iraq’s stability or instability. The Kurdish groups’ demands are exaggerated and growing more intense. But the Kurdish side is actually the weakest side because America has reduced its support and will soon withdraw from Iraq. The Kurdish side’s cards are all on the table and everyone can see them. Thus the central government will gain a bit more power. And the Kurdish presence in Kirkuk is not historically true. It is just a claim.  For example, an objective writer, Anthony Cordesman, says that Kurdish gains in Kirkuk are a mistake of history, and that we should never be convinced about that. Neither Iraq’s other regions, nor the Arabs, nor the Turkmens will ever accept Kurdish control over Kirkuk. The solution may be to make Kirku the economic capital of Iraq, just as in Turkey Ankara is the political capital, while Istanbul is the economic capital. Or Kirkuk could be an independent federal region. Giving in to Kurdish demands will destabilize Kirkuk. 
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: For me there are lots of points in common that keep Turkey and Iraq so close. History, culture, common interests and realistic demands about developing relations.  I think Iraq’s government should see relations with Turkey as a strategic matter and make no concessions. Turkey is the nation that interferes least in Iraq’s domestic affairs. All Iraqi factions accept this and are pleased. 
 

Dr. Basil EL-GUREYRI: We expect Turkey’s cooperation and help in the development of Iraq. We want a solution for water problems. When Turkey is beginning to do a project we want them to think about Iraq’s needs and to make a deal with us about it. In the future there won’t be problems and both sides will protect their common interests. I think it is better to institutionalize cooperation so that relations won’t be affected when the government changes or by sudden changes.  In this manner we can improve our relations and benefit more.