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  • We talked to co-founder of the Arab Reform Initiative Bassma Kodmani about international society’s approach to Syrian civil war, current situation of Syrian opposition and expectations from international actors.
    We talked to Ambassador Mohamed El Fatah NACIRI, who served as the Head of Mission of the League of Arab States to Ankara since February, 2010, about the Middle East before and after Arab Spring; and the League of Arab States which is a international and regional actor.
    ORSAM has launched the new issue of the ORSAM Inteviews on Regional Affairs. This edition features an interview with Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu, the President of the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB).
    ORSAM has launched An in-depth interview series, entitled ORSAM Interviews on Regional Affairs. The first edition features an interview with the Predident of Prime Ministry’s Disaster and Emergency Management Agency Dr. Fuat Oktay.
    On the occasion of the 90th Anniversary of the Diplomatic Relations Between Japan and Turkey, ORSAM in cooperation with Japanese Embassy and SAM organized a joint symposium entitled “Japan and Turkey: Where Did We Come From? Where Are We Going?"
    A delegation from The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) visited Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) on 19 August 2014.
    On 30 April 2014, national elections took place in Iraq. Not only Iraqi people followed these elections but also countries in the region and international actors watched them closely.
    The Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) in coordination with the Italian research institute of Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) organized a meeting in Rome entitled “Turkish Policy toward the Syrian Crisis and the Impact of Refugees” on June 6th 2014.
    ORSAM, in collaboration with the Middle East Institute and the Migration Policy Institute organized a meeting entitled “Syrians on the Edge: The Status of Refugees in Neighboring Countries” in Washington D.C.
    ORSAM and Center for Strategic Studies-University of Jordan (CSS) organized a workshop entitled “Exchanges on the Middle East: Turkey-Jordan Relations within the Changing Regional Environment” in Amman on 26 May 2014.
    ORSAM will held a conference entitled “Syrians on the Edge: The Status of Refugees in Neighboring Countries”, in partnership with Middle East Institute and Migration Policy Institute in Washington, DC.
    ORSAM, in cooperation with TOBB ETU and the United Nations held a panel entitled “Forum for the Support of the Palestinian People “on May 14, 2014.
    On 6-7 May 2014, ORSAM, in cooperation with Türkmeneli Cooperation and Cultural Foundation, Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TİKA) and Turkish Historical Society organized a symposium entitled “Middle Eastern Turkmen”.
    A mission which is composed of Lebanon Turkmens and chaired by Hussein Mohamad- Secretary General of the Tripoli and Dinniye Lebanon Türkoman League has visited Turkey in order to contact with some institutes.
    A delegation of Turkish academicians led by ORSAM President Assoc. Prof. Şaban Kardaş paid a visit to Iranian universities and research institutions on 19-20 April 2014.
    A group of students from SDE Academy, established within the Institute of Strategic Thinking on April 27th, 2014, paid a visit to ORSAM within the scope of their “Weekly Event Schedule”.
    ORSAM, in partnership with SAM ve TOBB ETU, held a lecture entitled “How will the International Order Accommodate Rising Powers? A Liberal Perspective" by G. John Ikenberry in 16 April 2014 in Ankara.
    On 24 March 2014, ORSAM, in partnership with the SAM and the Mosul University Department of Turkish Language and Literature organized a panel entitled “Changing Equilibrium in the Middle East and Turkey-Iraq Relations” in Mosul.
    Jordanian journalists visited the ORSAM on March 12, 2014 as part of a program organized by the Office of Public Diplomacy under the Prime Ministry of the Republic of Turkey.
    ORSAM and TESEV, with support from the Stabilization Unit of the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, held a joint workshop entitled “Regional Impact Analysis: Syrian Conflict” in Istanbul on 6 March 2014.
    ORSAM Books No: 5
    ORSAM Middle East Books No: 3
    Mosul in The Ottoman Vilâyet Salnâmes
    ORSAM Books No: 4
    Central Asia Books No. 1
    Energy Security,
    Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Central Asia
    EGYPT IN TRANSITION
    AND
    TURKEY-EGYPT RELATIONS IN NEW ERA
    TUNISIA AND TURKEY-TUNISIA
    RELATIONS IN THE ANNIVERSARY
    OF THE REVOLUTION
     
    ORSAM Report No: 115 Arguments on Safe Havens in Syria: Risks, opportunities and Scenarios for Turkey

    -The truth, brought out following a year since the beginning of the unrest in Syria, is the fact that the power struggle in Syria has fairly turned into a wrist wrestling and that it is almost impossible both for the regime and dissidents to turn back from their positions. It seems that the struggle will continue until the regime topples or Syrian dissidents are suppressed.

    - There is an asymmetrical power between the Syrian army and military opposition. This fact leads us to the conclusion that “It is quite difficult to change the Assad regime without foreign actors’ taking military measures or without providing the military opposition with foreign support”. Thus, more concrete and strict foreign policy options for the actors arguing for the regime change in Syria were started to be discussed. Within this framework, safe haven option comes to the forefront.

    - These following points should be taken into consideration while establishing safe haven: Ethnic, religious, sectarian distribution of the population living in places, where safe haven is considered to be established. The relations of locals with the Syrian regime and dissidents, and their outlook on the uprising. The locals’ outlook on Turkey, and how they will approach to the establishment of safe haven. The presence of non-state actors that might pose a safety threat for Turkey in the region. And lastly, the geographic situation of the region.

    - Establishing the safe haven to be created in Syria in a very limited zone can cause trouble both in terms of humanitarian accommodation and also in terms of the military protection. Therefore, if safe haven is going to be established; it should, at least, be 20 kilometers deep. However the borderline of this zone within Syria will not be a straight line. Considering geographic conditions and settlements, the borderline might be drawn to places closer to Turkey. Of course, military protection will be required for the region both by land and by air. The safe haven will serve, above all, for reception of Syrian civilian people escaping from the operations of Syrian army before entering in Turkish territories and for their accommodation without any security risk. Thus, Turkey will try to prevent economic and social problems to be created as a result of mass migration waves. The answer to the question regarding what the ultimate goal of establishing safe haven will be should shed light on where and how the safe haven will be created.

    Contents

    Presentation

    Executive Summary

    Introduction

    1. Process towards the Arguments on Military Measures for the Solution of Syrian Problem

    a. Arms Aid for Syrian Dissidents

    b. Establishing Safe Haven

    2. The General View of the Line Planned to be Established Safe Haven

    a. Latakia Province – Turkey Borderline

    b. Idlib Province – Turkey Borderline

    c. Aleppo Province – Turkey Borderline

    d. Raqqah Province – Turkey Borderline

    e. Hasakah Province – Turkey Borderline

    3. Possible Safe Haven Lines

    a. The Safest Line

    b. The Line with the Highest Risk

    c. Low Risk Maximum Benefit

    d. Alternative Line

    Conclusion
     
    Full text   
       
       
     10 April 2012  
              
    22 October 2014
    ORSAM Report No: 192
    October 2014
    Turkey-Tunisia Relations on the Eve of Elections in Tunisia
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 191
    September 2014
    US Strategy against ISIS and its Potential Implications for Iraq & Syria
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 190
    June 2014
    The 2014 Elections, ISIS Operations and the Future of Iraq
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 189
    April 2014
    The Situation Of Syrian Refugees in the Neighboring Countries:
    Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations
    (Tr - Eng - Ar)
    ORSAM Report No: 179
    November 2013
    İnterviews With Syrian Refugees in Reyhanlı - VI
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 178
    November 2013
    İnterviews With Syrian Women in Reyhanlı - V
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 164
    August 2013
    The Clashes in Northern Syria and the Possible Effects
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 160
    May 2013
    Interviews With Syrian Refugees in Reyhanlı
    (After Reyhanlı Bombings) - IV

    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 159
    May 2013
    Interviews With Syrian Women in Reyhanlı - III
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 158
    May 2013
    Interviews With Syrian Refugees in Reyhanlı - II
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 157
    May 2013
    Interviews With Syrian Refugees in Reyhanlı - I
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 156
    May 2013
    ORSAM Report on Reyhanlı
    “11 May”
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 155
    BLACK SEA INTERNATIONAL Report No: 32
    May 2013
    Historical Notes from the Minutes of the Montreux Straits
    Conference and Kanal İstanbul
    (Tr)
    ORSAM Report No: 154
    ORSAM Water Research Programme Report No: 19
    May2013
    Transboundary Waters Within the Scope of EU Water Framework Directive
    (Tr)
    ORSAM Report No: 153
    April 2013
    Electoral Laws in Iraq
    (Tr)
     
    ORSAM Report No: 152
    April 2013
    Basic Data on 2013 Local Elections in Iraq
    (Tr)
    ORSAM Report No: 151
    April 2013
    Democracy Process and Problems in Iraqi Kurdistan
    (Tr - Eng)
     
    ORSAM Report No: 150
    March 2013
    Syrian Turkmens: Political Movements and Military Structure
    (Tr - Eng)
    ORSAM Report No: 149
    February 2013
    David Cameron and the EU: Crossing the Rubicon
    (Eng)
     
    ORSAM Report No: 148
    January 2013
    Internatonal Politics and Civilizations
    (Clash of Civilizations and Dialogue)

    (Tr - Eng)
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